Unemployment and Cross-border Workforce in the Canton Ticino

Since the entry into force of the bilateral agreements on the free movement of persons (2002) and, in particular, the abolition of the priority given to local workers, in force since 2004, many concerns have animated the economic and political debates at the cantonal level, especially concerning the evolution of the number of commuters and the potential adverse effects that these changes may cause, particularly in terms of rising unemployment as a result of replacement of resident workforce with foreign personnel. On behalf of the Tripartite cantonal board, the IRE implemented a structured research into two phases , to answer the question whether there is a causal relationship between unemployment and trans-border commuting. The first, purely focused on official statistics and administrative data described separately the evolution of the two phenomena in the last ten years to determine whether there are scientifically valid elements that can lead to the conclusion that there is a causal relationship between the two phenomena, and thus a trend and systematic replacement of resident staff with personal post. The second phase considers, instead, an experiment based on the method of discrete choices analysis.